Real Science: The Theories Behind Tornadoes and Floods

There is no shortage of reportage on the scientific theories behind Mother Nature's savage and unforgiving spring of 2011: Global Climate change, "La Nina" and unfortunate coincidence. 

But mercifully, so far there are no rampant, bible-waving warnings that the tornadoes and floods devastating America are the latest apocalyptic revelations from heaven.

"So far, the research on tornadoes and climate change is far from conclusive, and observational records don't show any significant trends in tornado strength or frequency," wrote Andrew Freedman on the Australian website, Climate Spectator.

"What is clear, however, is that population growth has put more people in harm's way, and high death tolls can still occur despite accurate and timely warnings, particularly when tornadoes strike densely populated areas, as was so sadly demonstrated in Tuscaloosa and Joplin.," Freedman added.

The New York Times has a hefty question and answer facts column culled from experts. On the role, if any, of climate change on the extreme weather, John Collins Rudolf and Justin Gillis writes," Frustratingly, it is likely to be a year or two before we get good published analyses of the causes for this season’s strange weather — and it may be decades before science can conclusively demonstrate whether or not human-driven warming is affecting tornado frequency.

The Los Angeles Times also offers its own Q &A on tornadoes.

Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are now 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer on average than than prior to 1970,  according to Kevin Trenberth, distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.
“Two degrees of that can be attributed to natural variability while one degree Fahrenheit is associated with climate change,” Trenberth explains in an interview with Bloomberg news.

Tim Barnett, climate expert at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif., says the deadly tornado that hit Joplin, Mo., and other recent twisters in the Midwest "were probably not due to climate change. Everyone wants to pin it on an events like this. But it is very difficult to do that scientifically for any one event."

"If you look at the past 60 years of data, the number of tornadoes is increasing significantly, but it's agreed upon by the tornado community that it's not a real increase," Grady Dixon, who teaches meteorology and climatology at Mississippi State University, tells Agence France Press. "It's having to do with better (weather tracking) technology, more population, the fact that the population is better educated and more aware. So we're seeing them more often."

Bill McKibben, founder of the global climate campaign 350.org and a distinguished scholar at Middlebury College in Vermont, offers a witty, if not sarcastic, mock denial of climate change's role in the  bombastic weather phenomena.

"It's very important to stay calm. If you got upset about any of this, you might forget how important it is not to disrupt the record profits of our fossil fuel companies," McKibben wrote in a piece published on several editorial pages. 

"If worst ever did come to worst, it's reassuring to remember what the U.S. 
Chamber of Commerce told the Environmental Protection Agency in a recent filing: that there's no need to worry because 'populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological, and technological adaptations.' I'm pretty sure that's what residents are telling themselves in Joplin today," McKibben chides.

Citing the National Academy of Sciences, Gregg Easterbrook takes on the extreme right wing. "Despite what the talk radio and Tea Party types say, there is strong scientific consensus that human activity has begun to alter Earth’s climate," Easterbrook blogs for Reuters.

The Daily Caller smirks at the talk of climate change, at the expense of America's favorite weatherman.

Apocalypse not now? Jay Michaelson duly notes the lack of doomsday talk from religious conservatives.

"It's just been a bad year," Kent State University geographer Thomas W. Schmidlin tells The Associated Press.

Tornado-Ravaged South Still Aching And Needs Help

The news moves quickly and is seems as if there is new natural or manmade disaster every few weeks. The floods snaking down the Mississippi are a slow, frightening look into the pain that Americans are suffering as their homes and livelihoods are washed away (more on this in coming days).

But only a few weeks ago, states from Arkansans, Tennessee and Louisiana all the way to Georgia, with particular devastation along the way in Alabama, tornadoes claimed more than 300 lives and left mayhem and destruction in its tracks.

Folks in those states still need some help, and people have stepped up. Prompted and pushed by Hank Williams Jr. CMT took the initiative 90-minute live concert and telethon from The Grande Ole Opry House for victims of the tonadoes, storms and floods.

"When this happened, we were kind of driven out of our home up in northwest Tennessee," Williams told CMT Insider. "We had tornadoes and flooding and no power for several days. ... Then I start seeing the news on television and the Weather Channel and, then all of a sudden, how many deaths? I couldn't believe it. Tuscaloosa, Cullman, where I used to live, Birmingham. And then it would double. Then it was 120. Then I talked to Robin Meade at CNN. Then it was 170. I said, 'This can't be right. I didn't see that right, did I? In that short of time, can it be right?'"

He decided to visit some of the tornado-ravaged areas.

"I went down there and saw it in person and what it did to Tuscaloosa," he said. "There's no way to describe. My buddies told me, 'When you get here and see it, you'll wonder how it didn't kill thousands. I've never seen anything like it in my lifetime. We've never had anything in Nashville like this or in Tennessee like this. We're talking about the biggest natural disaster in the history of the state of Alabama -- 5,700 homes, just Tuscaloosa. Thirty people are still missing, and it all adds up. I said, 'I gotta do something.'"

Ashton Shepherd, Big Kenny, Clay Walker, Clint Black, Crystal Bowersox, Danny Gokey, Darryl Worley, David Nail, Hilary and Holly Williams, Kellie Pickler, Montgomery Gentry, Phil Vassar, model Niki Taylor and Olympic gold medalist figure skater Scott Hamilton all volunteered to work the phones to accept donations for the American Red Cross.

Alabama, Alan Jackson, Gretchen Wilson, Keith Urban, Lady Antebellum, Little Big Town, Ronnie Dunn, Sara Evans, the Blind Boys of Alabama, Tim McGraw and Trace Adkins all ponied up their time and talent for thee cause.

There is more here on stepping up for the cause by performers.

Alabama coaches hosted a radiothon. 

NEWLY ADDED: A bike ride to benefit tornado victims is being organized in Apison, Tenn.

The Mother of All Charity Lists for Alabama has been compiled by Alabama Possible.

Another good list that includes charities from several states slammed by tornadoes this spring.

(NOTE: This item was originally meant to be posted before the CMT program, but glitches with Google Blogger zapped that idea).