Still A Chance Mubarak Will Go Sooner Than Later

As Cairo re-opened banks and businesses today amid a tireless pro-democracy movement, there were a few indications some Egyptian government officials appear ready to try to find a dignified and respectful way for Hosni Mubarak to resign with a degree of honor, according to diplomatic sources familiar with the discussions.

How long it will take to implement such a plan remains unknown, but Mubarak's departure is a centerpiece of all-party talks between the government and factions representing the pro-democracy protesters and the Muslim Brotherhood, the sources indicated.

"I can only keep saying what I have said previously, that it's extremely fluid," said a European diplomatic source who spoke on the condition of anonymity.   
 
Closer to home, the Obama administration is showing signs of  becoming increasingly frustrated with the tactics of a tone-deaf Mubarak, whose strong-arm tactics carried out by lawless goon squads have resulted in near universal sympathy for the pro-democracy demonstrators.

Near universal sympathy is the key phase there. A handful of Arab monarchs, multi-national capitalists, some but not all neocon ideologues and a few nostalgic politicians, diplomats and scholars are still urging President Obama to prop up the doomed dictator.

Obama's own special envoy, who met this week with Mubarak and newly installed Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman believes Mubarak should not be ousted as he begins his promised democratic transition.

"The President must stay in office in order to steer those changes through,"Wisner told the Munich Security Conference.

Former Vice President Dick Cheney said Mubarak should be treated with respect for his loyalty to the U.S. and his role as a Middle East peace broker. "I think President Mubarak needs to be treated as he deserved over the years, because he has been a good friend," Cheney said at the ceremony marking 100 years since President Ronald Reagan's birth.

Even Tea Party hostess Sarah Palin, with her vast knowledge of foreign policy (she can still see Russia from her house), took a swipe at the Obama administration's Egypt diplomacy, borrowing from a campaign ad that Hillary Clinton used against Obama during the 2008 Democratic primary.

“It’s a difficult situation,” Palin said in an interview this weekend with the Christian Broadcasting Network. “This is that 3 a.m. White House phone call, and it seems for many of us trying to get that information from our leader in the White House, it seems that that call went right to the answering machine.”

Obama has erased much of the doubt (even cast in the columns of this web log) where his heart lies in this struggle for human rights, a good living and the freedoms that are enjoyed in the West and next door with Egypt's ally Israel. The President wants Mubarak to go.

In a role he has become comfortable with, Vice President Biden pressed Egyptian Vice President Omar Soleiman "for the need for a concrete reform agenda, a clear timeline, and immediate steps that demonstrate to the public and the opposition that the Egyptian government is committed to reform," the White House said in a statement.

"Vice President Biden asked about progress in beginning credible, inclusive negotiations for Egypt’s transition to a democratic government to address the aspirations of the Egyptian people," the statement added.

For his part, Obama discussed "the importance of an orderly, peaceful transition, beginning now," with key allies, who also wield influence with the Egyptian government, the White House said. Obama spoke by phone with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates, British Prime Minister David Cameron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel (see also previous item below).

Cameron warned the longer it takes for a transitional government to form in Egypt, the greater the likelihood of extremists hijacking the pro-democracy movement. "We need change, reform and transition to get stability," Cameron said at the Munich conference. "The longer that is put off, the more likely we are to get an Egypt that we wouldn't welcome."

White House: More Irons in Fire Than Times reports

The White House is not outright knocking down a report by The New York Times that says the U.S. is negotiating a deal "for President Hosni Mubarak to resign immediately, turning over power to a transitional government headed by Vice President Omar Suleiman," but the administration is making it clear that the story is a bit incomplete.

An administration official tells The File, "It's simply wrong to report that there's a single U.S. plan that's being negotiated with the Egyptians."

It is a sensitive time, with many people speculating that Mubarak is about to send in his storm troopers to clear Liberation Square of the peaceful protesters who have staked out that area to demand that the Egyptian despot resign immediately. Working journalists and celebrity broadcasters like Brian Williams are hiding out tonight for fear of being the targets of the angry mob.

The U.S., meanwhile, has discussed several options to move Egypt towards democratic reforms, but it remains in the hands of the Egyptian people to decide their own fate.

"The President has said that now is the time to begin a peaceful, orderly and meaningful transition, with credible, inclusive negotiations. We have discussed with the Egyptians a variety of different ways to move that process forward, but all of those decisions must be made by the Egyptian people," said National Security Council Spokesman Tommy Vietor.

ABC Scores Interview With Delusional Mubarak

After days of coverage from Egypt dominated by CNN, the BBC and Al Jazeera, ABC News diva Christiane Amanpour led her own Egyptian coup: An interview with a very confused and self-important Hosni Mubarak.

It was such a good get that ABC even interrupted its daytime programming to air a do-tell by the host of ABC's "This Week"  program.

"He said he's fed up with being president and would like to leave office now, but cannot, he says, for fear that the country would sink into chaos," Amanpour reported.

So great interview or not, Mubarak is delusional on his role in what is happening on Egypt's streets. 

Pharaoh is clearly jet skiing on da Nile.

Click here for Amanpour's report.

Obama & Mubarak & the Age of Incrementalism

For the Obama administration catching up with the uprising in Egypt is like chasing a runaway locomotive on a bicycle. From its initial public support for doomed Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak to its need to appear to be hands-off, the White House is saddled with an event it fears will end in a train wreck.

President Obama had a chance tonight to outright derail criticism that the U.S. and its ally in the Middle East, Israel, are acting in their interests before those of the repressed Egyptian people. Instead, not long after Mubarak announced only that he would not seek re-election this fall, Obama chose to speak in the language of diplomats and D.C., leaving it to his aides to tell us in the press that the President is being much more forceful in private.

"After his speech tonight, I spoke directly to President Mubarak. He recognizes that the status quo is not sustainable and that a change must take place," Obama said at a White House lectern, where two glasses of water were placed in case he went dry.

"Now, it is not the role of any other country to determine Egypt’s leaders.  Only the Egyptian people can do that.  What is clear -- and what I indicated tonight to President Mubarak -- is my belief that an orderly transition must be meaningful, it must be peaceful, and it must begin now," he added.

It sounded like a big build-up to Obama finally calling for Mubarak to toss in the towel immediately, but the U.S. leader fell short of that mark, essentially saying only that the transition "should lead to elections that are free and fair."

On the streets of Egypt, where some newly dispatched pro-Mubarak forces were reportedly clashing with peaceful protesters, there were chants of "Leave, leave,  leave." It is too early to say whether they will be comforted or confused by Obama's words regarding Mubarak.

What is clear is that the longer Mubarak holds on to power the greater the chance that the lives of the poor and middle class protesters are threatened. Mubarak said today that he will go after violent protesters and looters, words that did not appease the peaceful demonstrators who fear they too will face repercussions for taking to the streets.

So too at risk with Mubarak still in power are U.S. allies in the Middle East, from Israel to Saudi Arabia, along with the volatile global oil markets, where profiteers prey on turmoil as they watch their bloated bank accounts overflow.

In the best case scenario, a Pan Arab democratic revolution is being born in Egypt that will be the best antidote this side of Predator Drones to Islamic fundamental radicals bent on repressing their people while they fight an unholy war with the West. The darkest result would be allowing the militant hijackers of the true teachings of the Koran to take root in Egypt while the world waits for Mubarak to pack his bags.

"It's reckoning time for the dictators," declared CNN Middle East analyst and scholar Fouad Ajami.

Lets hope Ajami is right, but this is also the era of American incrementalism, whether it's health care reform, ousting despots or dealing with China's quest for global economic supremacy, the U.S. is committed to baby steps.