Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Don't Buy the Hype: It Will Take Miracle for the Democrats to Win Pompeo's Vacant Seat

Score one for the GOP in setting bar in the expectations game in the race to fill the seat vacated by Mike Pompeo after he left Congress to become CIA director. A wave of articles have hit the final few days leading up to today's special election in the Fourth Congressional District claiming Republicans should be very worried, or at least troubled that their candidate Ron Estes could fall to Democratic challenger James Thompson with the help of a conservative vote-draining libertarian Chris Rockhold.

 Is an upset by Thompson possible? Anything is possible. Likely? Not really.

This is a case of the GOP trying to run up the vote tally late to avoid looking like a rock solid Republican district almost fell to the Democrats. That would be bad for President Trump and Speaker Ryan and would likely trigger a wave of Democratic victories in equally stand-pat GOP districts.

Noticeably missing from the media storm is any sign of extraordinary optimism from the Democrats. So don't buy the Republican line on this race. This is the GOP's to lose, and odds are good it won't. Democrats, however, may find a silver lining in defeat: if they do make this a close race they can take note of the fact they did it amid the GOP clucking Chicken Little to drive up its voter turnout.

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