Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Brazil's Dilma has the Momentum Going into the Homestretch

Immediately after the Oct. 5 elections in Brazil, I warned pro-market investors their candidate, Aécio Neves, hadn't earned enough votes to oust incumbent President Dilma Rousseff, even though he jumped to a lead in the polls after that initial vote. Neves never buildup enough of a cushion of support to offset a late surge by the incumbent president.

Now, just days before the runoff, the forecast that Dilma wins prevails. The fact is in run-off elections, like special elections, momentum is the gold standard, and Neves hasn't shown he has enough steam to oust Dilma. Further strengthening my prognostication: investors now say publicly they will pump money into Brazil, no matter who wins.

Yet another poll released today shows Dilma surging. The forecast remains the same: bet Dilma on Sunday.

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